In several books, monographs, scholarly papers, newspaper articles and in TV network appearances, Grayson has analyzed and documented the progressive fraying of Mexico’s social fabric, the erosion of the rule of law and how the powerful drug cartels have corrupted the country’s political, and law enforcement establishments at all levels.

Grayson, a professor of government at the College of William & Mary, who for 29 years represented the 97th district in the Virginia House of Delegates, has foretold the crisis that now engulfs Mexico.

“Mexico’s major problem is that it has never had an honest, reliable police force,” Grayson said in a recent interview with the Lake Placid News and The Virginia Gazette. “When the Institutionalized Revolutionary Party (PRI) ran the country (1929-2000) they created and corrupted law enforcement agencies at every level. Now, without a trustworthy police, President Felipe Calderon has to rely heavily on the armed forces to fight the drug cartels.”

According to Grayson, another reason why Mexico is finding itself in this crisis situation is that it collects only 12 percent of its GDP in taxes, on par with Haiti before the last disaster. In contrast, Brazil collects about 35 percent. The wealthy in Mexico not just avoid paying taxes, he said, but “don’t give a tired rat’s derriere” about the plight of the 40 percent of their countrymen who lack decent schools, quality health care, and job-training.

“My advice to Washington is to stop patronizing “Poor Mexico” and follow a policy of “tough love.” Mexico has everything – oil, natural gas, gold, silver, resorts, museums, archaeological treasures, and unbelievable kind and hardworking people. It has the world’s 12th largest industrial sector. If Singapore, could lease Mexico for 20 years, we would be talking about the “Colossus of the South” and buying pole-vaulting devices to jump the fence into Mexico,” he added.

There is more to what ails Mexico and what Grayson calls, ‘vertical government.’ “One elected, the other imposed by force,” he said in a recent interview on National Public Radio. “A dual sovereignty- that is, you may have a city such as Reynosa, south of McAllen, Texas, which will have an elected mayor, a police chief, a finance officer, a public work administrator. But cheek by jowl with the elected government will be a cartel boss and his entourage, and he’s probably going to call the shots.”

Grayson, in his lectures explains the reasons for the deteriorating situation in Mexico and points out that it may have serious consequences for the United States.

“The nation’s elite in cities like Mexico City and Guadalajara live like princes and have not committed themselves to fighting organized crime,” he said. “They have state-of-the-art security systems in their residences, skilled drivers, and effective bodyguards. They send their children abroad to study and in fact, an increasing number of members of the private sector are running their Mexico-based businesses from the U.S. where they also have homes.”

The only silver lining that Grayson perceives in the crisis engulfing Mexico is that the drug cartels don’t want the state to fail. “The cartels are making billions of dollars: they don’t want a failed state,” he said. “It would alarm and mobilize most of Mexico’s elites. In addition it could trigger American intervention that is something that the drug cartels want to avoid at all cost.”

“Mexico’s future lies in the hands of Mexican leaders. Uncle Sam cannot wave a magic wand and cure its problems anymore that he can bring stability, prosperity, and democracy to Afghanistan,” he added

Frank Shatz lives in Williamsburg, Va. and Lake Placid. His column was reprinted with permission from The Virginia Gazette.